Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

510
FXUS64 KMEG 141143
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
643 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

-A warming trend will kick off today. Forecast highs will be in
 the mid to upper 80s. Some areas may reach or exceed 90 degrees
 during this warming trend.

-Mostly dry conditions will persist through Thursday.

-Another active weather period will kick off on Friday with strong
 to severe thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

A calm night can be found across the region at this hour as upper
level ridging builds in from the west. This ridging will return
mostly dry conditions and allow temperatures to soar into the upper
80s today and tomorrow. Some areas could see their first 90
degree day of the year today. Probabilities of exceeding 90 on
Thursday are a bit higher as the ridge centers over the Mid-
South. Southerly winds increase today allowing for plenty of Gulf
moisture transport to increase dewpoints into the 60s and 70s.

With ample moisture and hot conditions, this brings an increased
focus on severe weather chances as a negatively tilted trough
traverses across the Central Plains. The greatest height falls
remain well north of the Mid-South. Guidance however does show a
decent QPF signal, hinting at organized convection. Confidence is
low at this time for anything more than a marginal severe threat
on Thursday night into Friday morning. If this threat does
materialize, the at risk areas would be confined to areas north of
I- 40.

Friday does have more favorable kinematics for severe weather, but
soundings are showing a stout EML. This EML looks to set in the core
of the upper level jet with very little height falls until after the
primed environment has settled some. Instability has continued to
trend downwards (down to 1500 J/kg from near 4000 J/kg) with this
activity, but lapse rates remain very steep (nearing 8 C/km). If
guidance continues to hold onto the deep EML, the best severe
weather window may occur along the warm front surging back north
Friday night. This would promote large hail as a primary threat. As
diurnal trends takeover after sunset, the LLJ will intensify and
transition to a damaging wind threat with around 60 kts of effective
shear.

Hot and humid conditions will continue with temperatures in the 80s
and continuing to near 90 degrees into early next week. Another
storm complex will take aim from the Southern Plains to keep an
unsettled weather pattern in affect. As a summer-like regime,
instability will not be hard to come by resulting in thunder storm
chances through at least early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Main concern this morning is the possibility of a MVFR deck. HRRR
is much less aggressive than 24 hrs ago so kept MVFR deck SCT
this morning expect went with a TEMPO at JBR. Otrw expect VFR
conds through the period. There could be a few SHRAs around but
not confident enough to mention in the TAF. Southerly winds will
increase to 10-15 kts with higher gusts this afternoon. Winds will
remain above threshold at MEM tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM